Analysis of rainfall Trends and changes for Sustainable Agricultural Planning in Southern Taraba, Northeast Nigeria

Abstract

This paper examined trends and changes in annual precipitation. Precipitation data for the period 1993-2022 were obtained from WorldClim.org. Onset, cessation and length of rainy season were analyzed to determine the changes in the rainfall characteristics using relevant equations. SPSS was used to determine the descriptive statistics of precipitation; linear trend analysis was used to determine the trend of the changes while Fisher's F-test was used to determine the statistical significance of the change. The result of the study shows that annual precipitation amounts between the periods 1993-2022 vary from 733.85 mm to 2238.4. Rainy days in the study area also vary from 164 days to 262 days. Onset of rain in the last decade (2012-2022) has change from March-April to April-May in Ibi, Wukari and Donga while at Takum and Ussa, the shift was observed from March to April. Cessation on the other has no significant changes. Rainfall trend analysis shows that Ibi, Donga and Takum were characterized by negative values of the linear trend (Takum -217 mm/10 years, Donga -64.5 mm/10years and Ibi-25 mm/10years) indicating decrease in the precipitation amount in the period (1993-2022). The study recommends proper dissemination of agro-climatic information for appropriate adjustment and adaptations by farmers in the study for sustainable agricultural development